23doves (23doves) wrote,

Eurovision 2012

OK, I know it's a whole month away yet, but nonetheless the Bookies are taking bets on Eurovision, and there's nothing wrong with having a bit of fun and analysing the chances of various entries surely?

Despite the short odds, the UK do not have a hope in hell.  We've been allocated the first slot in the contest, a position no country has ever won from - not even back in the days when there were only a dozen or so songs in the show.  We might finish in the top five if old man Humperdinck does a particularly good job, but I can't see how a win is even possible. Even if we'd entered Adele, we'd probably be doomed.   

Other than that, Jedward's entry this year is unmemorable and Sweden's utterly over-rated.

So then, who is in the running?  Well, Italy are on at 9/1 at William Hill and may well score with their Amy Winehouse-lite entry. There's nothing breathtaking about the song, but in a spectacularly weak year it's going to stand out. 

Norway seem exceptional value to me at 25/1.  They've entered a very Eastern sounding entry with the kind of exotic rhythms which may be in danger of falling out of fashion in Eurovision now, but there's hooks aplenty in the song, and whilst it might not be my cup of tea I can envisage a lot of Europe voting for this one.  It's an easy each way bet at least, especially at those odds. 

Of the absolute rank outsiders, Hungary *might* be worth a punt at 150/1, it's a passable pop ditty and Eastern loyalties may well push it over the top 5 line.  Don't bank on it, though.  

Israel are also on 150/1, but if the handicap of being a country a lot of other countries have a grudge against weren't enough, they've entered some middle aged performers who sound like Placebo covering "Chirpy Chirpy Cheep Cheep".  One of the most unusual entries in this year's contest, it may ride through the semi-finals on unusualness alone in a very bland year... but hmmm...

Ultimately though, it does seem as if the Bookies Favourite is the one that wins every single year, and that is Sweden at the moment.  I really can't hear it myself, but let's wait and see (and Sweden are one of those countries, like the UK, who get short odds every year despite not actually doing that well).  

Oh, and some punters apparently fancy the Netherlands who in their usual style have entered a rather schlager-tinged Country song.  Far too chirpy and cheesy for modern-day Eurovision, I feel, but it's certainly going to stand out.  Can't help but feel that the Netherlands just aren't getting it these days, though, and are relying on long-dead trends to push their way up the scoreboard. 

Any thoughts, chaps?
Tags: eurovision
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